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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Wildon — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
FT
3 – 0
Wildon
Wildon
5/5/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 24Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz37%
×Draw22%
Wildon41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.75
Wildon
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Wildon
2.08

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Wildon
1.65

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Wildon+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Wildon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
59%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Wildon
78%
Draw or Wildon
63%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
19%
Wildon wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
83%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
52%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
25%
Wildon 1+ goals
84%
Wildon 2+ goals
54%
Wildon 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
48%
Wildon (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Wildon away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Wildon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wildon attack 2.08 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
37%
level
22%
Wildon scores more
41%

Wildon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: TuS Heiligenkreuz 3–0 Wildon

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Wildon 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz in Heiligenkreuz am Waasen.