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Wildon vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Wildon
Wildon
FT
1 – 0
Liezen
Liezen
4/28/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Sportplatz Wildon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Wildon64%
×Draw19%
Liezen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wildon
2.25
Liezen
1.07

Wildon creates 110% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 42 away

creates per match

Wildon
1.76
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Wildon
1.39
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Wildon+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wildon ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wildon or draw
83%
Wildon or Liezen
81%
Draw or Liezen
36%

Winning margin

Wildon wins by 2+
41%
Liezen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wildon 1+ goals
89%
Wildon 2+ goals
65%
Wildon 3+ goals
39%
Liezen 1+ goals
66%
Liezen 2+ goals
29%
Liezen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wildon (draw refunded)
79%
Liezen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wildon at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 72 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wildon attack 1.76 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.25

Liezen attack 0.76 + Wildon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wildon scores more
64%
level
19%
Liezen scores more
17%

Wildon at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Wildon 1–0 Liezen

Wildon beat Liezen 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wildon in Wildon.