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Wildon vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Wildon
Wildon
FT
3 – 1
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
10/5/2019Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 10Sportplatz Wildon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wildon62%
×Draw19%
Hitthaller St. Michael19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wildon
2.33
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.23

Wildon creates 89% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wildon
1.76
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Wildon
1.39
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Wildon+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wildon ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wildon or draw
81%
Wildon or Hitthaller St. Michael
81%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
38%

Winning margin

Wildon wins by 2+
39%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wildon 1+ goals
90%
Wildon 2+ goals
67%
Wildon 3+ goals
41%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
71%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
35%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wildon (draw refunded)
76%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wildon at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 72 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wildon attack 1.76 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Wildon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wildon scores more
62%
level
19%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
19%

Wildon at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wildon vs Hitthaller St. Michael

Wildon beat Hitthaller St. Michael 3-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wildon in Wildon.