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Hitthaller St. Michael vs Wildon — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
FT
0 – 1
Wildon
Wildon
5/14/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 25Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael26%
×Draw21%
Wildon53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.40
Wildon
2.06

Wildon creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 75 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
Wildon
2.08

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
Wildon
1.65

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
Wildon+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Wildon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
47%
Hitthaller St. Michael or Wildon
79%
Draw or Wildon
74%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
11%
Wildon wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
75%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
41%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
17%
Wildon 1+ goals
87%
Wildon 2+ goals
61%
Wildon 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
33%
Wildon (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Wildon away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Wildon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Wildon attack 2.08 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
26%
level
21%
Wildon scores more
53%

Wildon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hitthaller St. Michael vs Wildon

Wildon beat Hitthaller St. Michael 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark in Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.