Wikki Tourist 1–0 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Wikki Tourist

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rivers United

6/5/2022

NPFL · Round 32Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist51%

×Draw29%

Rivers United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wikki TouristExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.72

Wikki Tourist

1.32

Rivers United

0.72

Wikki Tourist creates 83% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

1.42

creates per match

0.72

0.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Wikki Tourist

1.42

Rivers United

0.72

allows per match

Wikki Tourist

0.73

Rivers United

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw

80%

Wikki Tourist or Rivers United

71%

Draw or Rivers United

49%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+

24%

Rivers United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals

73%

Wikki Tourist 2+ goals

38%

Wikki Tourist 3+ goals

15%

Rivers United 1+ goals

51%

Rivers United 2+ goals

16%

Rivers United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)

71%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more

51%

level

29%

Rivers United scores more

20%

Wikki Tourist at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff