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Wikki Tourist vs Rivers United — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
CANC
15:00
Rivers United
Rivers United
5/24/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 37Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist51%
×Draw29%
Rivers United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.32
Rivers United
0.72

Wikki Tourist creates 83% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 131 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Rivers United
0.72

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Rivers United
1.22

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
80%
Wikki Tourist or Rivers United
71%
Draw or Rivers United
49%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
24%
Rivers United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
73%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
38%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
15%
Rivers United 1+ goals
51%
Rivers United 2+ goals
16%
Rivers United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
71%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
51%
level
29%
Rivers United scores more
20%

Wikki Tourist at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wikki Tourist host Rivers United

May 24, 2020: Wikki Tourist take on Rivers United in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wikki Tourist host Rivers United at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.