Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wikki Tourist vs Nasarawa United — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
2/1/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 24Abubarkar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist56%
×Draw26%
Nasarawa United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.48
Nasarawa United
0.71

Wikki Tourist creates 108% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 108 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Nasarawa United
0.69

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Nasarawa United
1.55

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Nasarawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
82%
Wikki Tourist or Nasarawa United
74%
Draw or Nasarawa United
44%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
29%
Nasarawa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
77%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
43%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
19%
Nasarawa United 1+ goals
51%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
16%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
76%
Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
56%
level
26%
Nasarawa United scores more
18%

Wikki Tourist at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikki Tourist vs Nasarawa United

Wikki Tourist and Nasarawa United drew 1-1 in NPFL on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Abubarkar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi.