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Wikki Tourist vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
2 – 1
MFM
MFM
1/19/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 16Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Wikki Tourist57%
×Draw27%
MFM16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.42
MFM
0.61

Wikki Tourist creates 133% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 61 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
MFM
1.41

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
84%
Wikki Tourist or MFM
73%
Draw or MFM
43%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
29%
MFM wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
76%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
41%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
17%
MFM 1+ goals
46%
MFM 2+ goals
13%
MFM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
78%
MFM (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

MFM attack 0.49 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
57%
level
27%
MFM scores more
16%

Wikki Tourist at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Wikki Tourist 2–1 MFM

Wikki Tourist beat MFM 2-1 in NPFL on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi.