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MFM vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
CANC
15:00
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
5/17/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 36Teslim Balogun Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

MFM55%
×Draw29%
Wikki Tourist16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.31
Wikki Tourist
0.57

MFM creates 130% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 89 away

creates per match

MFM
1.14
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MFM or draw
84%
MFM or Wikki Tourist
71%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
45%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
26%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
73%
MFM 2+ goals
38%
MFM 3+ goals
14%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
43%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
11%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
77%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.63 · 65 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.14 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MFM scores more
55%
level
29%
Wikki Tourist scores more
16%

MFM at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MFM vs Wikki Tourist — Match Preview

MFM face Wikki Tourist on May 17, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

MFM host Wikki Tourist at Teslim Balogun Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.