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Wikki Tourist vs Ifeanyi Uba — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
CANC
00:00
Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
3/25/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 27Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wikki Tourist60%
×Draw25%
Ifeanyi Uba15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.60
Ifeanyi Uba
0.65

Wikki Tourist creates 146% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Ifeanyi Uba
0.57

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Ifeanyi Uba
1.78

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
85%
Wikki Tourist or Ifeanyi Uba
75%
Draw or Ifeanyi Uba
40%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
33%
Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
80%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
47%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
22%
Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
48%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
14%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
80%
Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
60%
level
25%
Ifeanyi Uba scores more
15%

Wikki Tourist at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wikki Tourist vs Ifeanyi Uba — Match Preview

Wikki Tourist face Ifeanyi Uba on March 25, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wikki Tourist host Ifeanyi Uba at Pantami Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.