Wikki Tourist 4–2 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Wikki Tourist

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Heartland

H. Sofiane 74'

P. Damala 58'

M. Guda 20'

E. Dufegha 2'

K. Maduforo 84'

C. Ajoku 31'

7/28/2021

NPFL · Round 36Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist57%

×Draw27%

Heartland16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wikki TouristExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.64

Wikki Tourist

1.47

Heartland

0.64

Wikki Tourist creates 130% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 101 away

1.42

creates per match

0.54

0.73

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Wikki Tourist

1.42

Heartland

0.54

allows per match

Wikki Tourist

0.73

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw

84%

Wikki Tourist or Heartland

73%

Draw or Heartland

43%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+

30%

Heartland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals

77%

Wikki Tourist 2+ goals

43%

Wikki Tourist 3+ goals

18%

Heartland 1+ goals

47%

Heartland 2+ goals

14%

Heartland 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)

78%

Heartland (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.52 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Heartland attack 0.54 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more

57%

level

27%

Heartland scores more

16%

Wikki Tourist at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. Dufegha

18'

20'

M. Guda

31'

C. Ajoku

40'

58'

P. Damala

74'

H. Sofiane

84'

K. Maduforo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff