Wikki Tourist 1–2 Enyimba: Result & Stats | NPFL

Wikki Tourist

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Enyimba

5/26/2021

NPFL · Round 23Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist51%

×Draw29%

Enyimba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wikki TouristExpected goals in this matchEnyimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.73

Wikki Tourist

1.32

Enyimba

0.73

Wikki Tourist creates 81% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

1.42

creates per match

0.74

0.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Wikki Tourist

1.42

Enyimba

0.74

allows per match

Wikki Tourist

0.73

Enyimba

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Enyimba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw

79%

Wikki Tourist or Enyimba

71%

Draw or Enyimba

49%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+

24%

Enyimba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals

73%

Wikki Tourist 2+ goals

38%

Wikki Tourist 3+ goals

15%

Enyimba 1+ goals

52%

Enyimba 2+ goals

17%

Enyimba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)

71%

Enyimba (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more

51%

level

29%

Enyimba scores more

21%

Wikki Tourist at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff