Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wikki Tourist vs Bendel Insurance — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
4/19/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 35Kwara Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Wikki Tourist51%
×Draw29%
Bendel Insurance20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.27
Bendel Insurance
0.67

Wikki Tourist creates 90% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 79 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Bendel Insurance
0.61

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Bendel Insurance
1.13

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Bendel Insurance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
80%
Wikki Tourist or Bendel Insurance
71%
Draw or Bendel Insurance
49%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
24%
Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
72%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
36%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
14%
Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
49%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
15%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
72%
Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
51%
level
29%
Bendel Insurance scores more
20%

Wikki Tourist at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikki Tourist vs Bendel Insurance

Bendel Insurance beat Wikki Tourist 2-1 in NPFL on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Stadium in Ilorin.