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Wikki Tourist vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
8/5/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 38Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Wikki Tourist71%
×Draw20%
Adamawa United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.89
Adamawa United
0.48

Wikki Tourist creates 294% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 31 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
91%
Wikki Tourist or Adamawa United
80%
Draw or Adamawa United
29%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
44%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
85%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
56%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
29%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
38%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
8%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
89%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.89

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
71%
level
20%
Adamawa United scores more
9%

Wikki Tourist at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikki Tourist vs Adamawa United

Wikki Tourist beat Adamawa United 2-0 in NPFL on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.