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Wikielec vs Unia Skierniewice — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
1 – 0
Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Wikielec32%
×Draw25%
Unia Skierniewice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.29
Unia Skierniewice
1.52

Unia Skierniewice creates 18% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Unia Skierniewice
1.81

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Unia Skierniewice
1.29

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Unia Skierniewice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
57%
Wikielec or Unia Skierniewice
75%
Draw or Unia Skierniewice
68%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
14%
Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
72%
Wikielec 2+ goals
37%
Wikielec 3+ goals
14%
Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
78%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
45%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
43%
Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wikielec scores more
32%
level
25%
Unia Skierniewice scores more
43%

Unia Skierniewice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikielec vs Unia Skierniewice

Wikielec beat Unia Skierniewice 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.