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Wikielec vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Swit
Swit
3/2/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Wikielec39%
×Draw25%
Swit36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.45
Swit
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 103 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Swit
1.61

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
64%
Wikielec or Swit
75%
Draw or Swit
61%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
18%
Swit wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
77%
Wikielec 2+ goals
42%
Wikielec 3+ goals
18%
Swit 1+ goals
75%
Swit 2+ goals
41%
Swit 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
51%
Swit (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Swit attack 1.55 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wikielec scores more
39%
level
25%
Swit scores more
36%

Wikielec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wikielec 4 – 1 Swit

Wikielec beat Swit 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.