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Wikielec vs Stomil Olsztyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
3/21/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wikielec40%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.34
Stomil Olsztyn
1.21

Wikielec creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Stomil Olsztyn
1.41

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
66%
Wikielec or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
60%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
18%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
74%
Wikielec 2+ goals
39%
Wikielec 3+ goals
15%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
70%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
34%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
54%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wikielec scores more
40%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
34%

Wikielec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikielec vs Stomil Olsztyn

Wikielec and Stomil Olsztyn drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.