Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wikielec vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
5/24/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Wikielec41%
×Draw26%
Pelikan Łowicz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.42
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

Wikielec creates 15% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
67%
Wikielec or Pelikan Łowicz
74%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
59%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
20%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
76%
Wikielec 2+ goals
41%
Wikielec 3+ goals
17%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
71%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
35%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
56%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wikielec scores more
41%
level
26%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
33%

Wikielec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikielec vs Pelikan Łowicz

Wikielec beat Pelikan Łowicz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.