Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wikielec vs Mławianka Mława — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
3 – 0
Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
11/15/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wikielec44%
×Draw24%
Mławianka Mława32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.61
Mławianka Mława
1.35

Wikielec creates 19% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Mławianka Mława
1.46

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Mławianka Mława
1.94

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Mławianka Mława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
68%
Wikielec or Mławianka Mława
76%
Draw or Mławianka Mława
56%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
22%
Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
80%
Wikielec 2+ goals
48%
Wikielec 3+ goals
22%
Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
74%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
39%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
58%
Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wikielec scores more
44%
level
24%
Mławianka Mława scores more
32%

Wikielec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikielec vs Mławianka Mława

Wikielec beat Mławianka Mława 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.