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Wigry Suwałki vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/20/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wigry Suwałki38%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.27
Stomil Olsztyn
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.18
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.56
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
65%
Wigry Suwałki or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
62%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
17%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
72%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
36%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
14%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
70%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
34%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
52%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.18 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
38%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
35%

Wigry Suwałki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Stomil Olsztyn

Wigry Suwałki and Stomil Olsztyn drew 0-0 in I Liga on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.