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Wigry Suwałki vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
8/18/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Wigry Suwałki58%
×Draw22%
Sokół Ostróda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.89
Sokół Ostróda
1.00

Wigry Suwałki creates 89% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.67
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
0.94
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
80%
Wigry Suwałki or Sokół Ostróda
78%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
42%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
34%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
85%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
56%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
29%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
63%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
26%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
75%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.67 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Wigry Suwałki defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
58%
level
22%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
20%

Wigry Suwałki at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Sokół Ostróda

Wigry Suwałki beat Sokół Ostróda 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.