Wigry Suwałki 1–4 Radomiak Radom: Result & Stats

Wigry Suwałki

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Radomiak Radom

R. Bartczak 60'

P. Mikita 90+4'

M. Karwot 72'

Leândro 45+1' (pen), 34'

10/5/2019

I Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wigry Suwałki34%

×Draw26%

Radomiak Radom40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wigry SuwałkiExpected goals in this matchRadomiak Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.41

Wigry Suwałki

1.26

Radomiak Radom

1.41

Radomiak Radom creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 35 away

1.23

creates per match

1.29

1.53

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.23

Radomiak Radom

1.29

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.53

Radomiak Radom

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Radomiak Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw

60%

Wigry Suwałki or Radomiak Radom

74%

Draw or Radomiak Radom

66%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

14%

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

72%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

36%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

13%

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

76%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

41%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

45%

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.23 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Radomiak Radom attack 1.29 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more

34%

level

26%

Radomiak Radom scores more

40%

Radomiak Radom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

32'

34'

42'

45+1'

LeândroPenalty

46'

S. Łapiński← Ł. Sosnowski

60'

R. Bartczak

63'

M. Kaput← M. Lewandowski

72'

73'

76'

81'

89'

90'

90+4'

Wigry

Radomiak

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Fedoruk

46'▲S. Łapiński←▼Ł. Sosnowski

76'▲P. Gierach←▼M. Krol

89'▲B. Gużewski←▼M. Ozga

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

ŁapińskiGierachGużewski

Manager: D. Banasik

63'▲M. Kaput←▼M. Lewandowski

73'▲A. Banasiak←▼Leândro

81'▲D. Nowak←▼M. Gorski

Radomiak Radom substitutes

KaputBanasiakNowak