Wigry Suwałki 0–5 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

Wigry Suwałki

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Podbeskidzie

M. Kozak 90+1'

V. Šabala 60', 53'

P. Płacheta 23', 17'

9/30/2018

I Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski (Suwałki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wigry Suwałki37%

×Draw25%

Podbeskidzie38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wigry SuwałkiExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.42

Wigry Suwałki

1.39

Podbeskidzie

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

1.23

creates per match

1.30

1.53

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.23

Podbeskidzie

1.30

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.53

Podbeskidzie

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw

62%

Wigry Suwałki or Podbeskidzie

75%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

63%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

17%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

75%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

40%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

16%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

76%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

41%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

49%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.23 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Podbeskidzie attack 1.30 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more

37%

level

25%

Podbeskidzie scores more

38%

Podbeskidzie at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

23'

53'

60'

61'

P. Kaczmarczyk← A. Stasiak

64'

P. Kwasniewski← R. Bartczak

72'

M. Rzuchowski← A. Rakowski

74'

K. Kostorz← P. Płacheta

76'

M. Kozak← V. Šabala

84'

D. Polkowski← F. Karbowy

90+1'

M. Kozak

Wigry

Podbeskidzie

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Socha

61'▲P. Kaczmarczyk←▼A. Stasiak

64'▲P. Kwasniewski←▼R. Bartczak

84'▲D. Polkowski←▼F. Karbowy

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

KaczmarczykKwasniewskiPolkowski

Manager: K. Brede

72'▲M. Rzuchowski←▼A. Rakowski

74'▲K. Kostorz←▼P. Płacheta

76'▲M. Kozak←▼V. Šabala

Podbeskidzie substitutes

RzuchowskiKostorzKozak