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Wigry Suwałki vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
4/30/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wigry Suwałki42%
×Draw24%
Legia Warszawa II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.60
Legia Warszawa II
1.40

Wigry Suwałki creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.88
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.03
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
66%
Wigry Suwałki or Legia Warszawa II
76%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
58%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
21%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
80%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
47%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
22%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
75%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
41%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
56%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.88 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
42%
level
24%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
34%

Wigry Suwałki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wigry Suwałki 3–1 Legia Warszawa II

Wigry Suwałki beat Legia Warszawa II 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.