Wigry Suwałki 2–0 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Wigry Suwałki

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

3/21/2021

II Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wigry Suwałki48%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wigry SuwałkiExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.11

Wigry Suwałki

1.57

Garbarnia Kraków

1.11

Wigry Suwałki creates 41% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

1.67

creates per match

1.28

0.94

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.67

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki

0.94

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw

73%

Wigry Suwałki or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

52%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

25%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

79%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

46%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

21%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

67%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

30%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

64%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.67 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Wigry Suwałki defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more

48%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

27%

Wigry Suwałki at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff