Wigry Suwałki 1–1 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Wigry Suwałki

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Joel Huertas 32' (pen)

H. Wołąkiewicz 36' (pen)

7/27/2019

I Liga · Round 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wigry Suwałki42%

×Draw25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wigry SuwałkiExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.27

Wigry Suwałki

1.47

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.27

Wigry Suwałki creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.23

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.23

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.00

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.53

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw

67%

Wigry Suwałki or Chojniczanka Chojnice

75%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

58%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

20%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

77%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

43%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

18%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

72%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

36%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

56%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.23 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.00 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more

42%

level

25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

33%

Wigry Suwałki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Joel HuertasPenalty

36'

H. WołąkiewiczPenalty

49'

P. Zawistowski

68'

A. Papikyan← M. Kuzimski

71'

M. Ozga

74'

K. Sabillo← Joel Huertas

77'

W. Trochim← E. Drozdowicz

78'

K. Wachowiak

80'

K. Levis← C. Sauczek

82'

M. Sacharuk← K. Wachowiak

84'

G. Aftyka

89'

O. Fürst← S. Łapiński

Wigry

Chojniczanka

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Fedoruk

74'▲K. Sabillo←▼Joel Huertas

80'▲K. Levis←▼C. Sauczek

89'▲O. Fürst←▼S. Łapiński

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

SabilloLevisFürst

Manager: J. Petrik

68'▲A. Papikyan←▼M. Kuzimski

77'▲W. Trochim←▼E. Drozdowicz

82'▲M. Sacharuk←▼K. Wachowiak

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

PapikyanTrochimSacharuk

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Wigry Suwałki and Chojniczanka Chojnice drew 1-1 in I Liga on July 27, 2019.

Goals: Joel Huertas (32' pen), H. Wołąkiewicz (36' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.

Wigry Suwałki vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Chojniczanka Chojnice