Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–1 Wigry Suwałki

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wigry Suwałki

M. Grolik 43'

C. Sauczek 10'

4/23/2021

II Liga - East · Round 29Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice47%

×Draw25%

Wigry Suwałki28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchWigry Suwałki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.17

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.58

Wigry Suwałki

1.17

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 35% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

1.91

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.91

Wigry Suwałki

1.35

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

0.99

Wigry Suwałki

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Wigry Suwałki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

72%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Wigry Suwałki

75%

Draw or Wigry Suwałki

53%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

24%

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

79%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

47%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

21%

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

69%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

33%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

62%

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.35 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

47%

level

25%

Wigry Suwałki scores more

28%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

40'

43'

46'

55'

58'

65'

M. Żebrakowski← K. Wełniak

74'

T. Mikolajczak

81'

M. Grobelny← M. Kona

81'

S. Napolov← M. Klichowicz

81'

P. Gierach← D. Liszka

88'

M. Kurs← M. Sacharuk

88'

Oskar Nowak← T. Mikołajczak

90+4'

C. Sauczek

90'

P. Czułowski← P. Mularczyk

Chojniczanka

Wigry

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Nocoń

81'▲M. Grobelny←▼M. Kona

81'▲S. Napolov←▼M. Klichowicz

88'▲M. Kurs←▼M. Sacharuk

88'▲Oskar Nowak←▼T. Mikołajczak

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

GrobelnyNapolovKursNowak

Manager: D. Szulczek

65'▲M. Żebrakowski←▼K. Wełniak

81'▲P. Gierach←▼D. Liszka

90'▲P. Czułowski←▼P. Mularczyk

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

ŻebrakowskiGierachCzułowski