Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wigan vs Watford — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
João Pedro 87'
10/29/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan40%
×Draw28%
Watford32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.28
Watford
1.11

Wigan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 122 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Watford
1.06

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Watford
1.40

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
68%
Wigan or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
60%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
18%
Watford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
72%
Wigan 2+ goals
37%
Wigan 3+ goals
14%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
56%
Watford (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Watford away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Watford defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Watford attack 1.06 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more
40%
level
28%
Watford scores more
32%

Wigan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
C. TiltWiganWigan · D
7.3

Match Events

14'
Tendayi Darikwa
42'
Francisco Sierralta
62'
Graeme Shinnie
68'
S. Kalu← K. Sema
73'
Y. Asprilla← V. Bayo
74'
J. Magennis← N. Broadhead
77'
Hamza Choudhury
79'
Mario Gaspar← D. Gosling
84'
T. Naylor← J. Cousins
87'
João Pedro↳ Y. Asprilla
90'
A. Scully← J. McClean
90'
T. Aasgaard← T. Darikwa

Possession

47%Wigan

Shots

8Wigan

Pass accuracy

47%Wigan

Statistics

WiganWatford
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots13
3Corners4
5Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots13
1On Target2
6Off Target5
1Blocked6
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
353Total Passes395
245Accurate Passes312
69%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Championship: Wigan 0–1 Watford

Watford beat Wigan 1-0 in Championship on October 29, 2022.

Goals: João Pedro (87').

Watford controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.