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Wigan vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
N. Broadhead 65'
B. Sharp 56'
J. Egan 8'
12/19/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan33%
×Draw28%
Sheffield Utd38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.11
Sheffield Utd
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 116 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Sheffield Utd
1.25

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Sheffield Utd
1.07

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
62%
Wigan or Sheffield Utd
72%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
67%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
13%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
67%
Wigan 2+ goals
30%
Wigan 3+ goals
10%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
70%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
34%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
47%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigan scores more
33%
level
28%
Sheffield Utd scores more
38%

Sheffield Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. SharpSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · F
7.6

Match Events

8'
J. Egan↳ O. Norwood
15'
Curtis Tilt
15'
Billy Sharp
31'
R. Edmonds-Green← J. Whatmough
40'
John Egan
46'
J. Cousins← T. Naylor
56'
B. Sharp↳ I. Ndiaye
61'
T. Aasgaard← J. Bennett
61'
R. Nyambe← T. Darikwa
65'
N. Broadhead
67'
Ciaran Clark
80'
T. Doyle← J. McAtee
80'
O. McBurnie← B. Sharp
84'
A. Fletcher← N. Broadhead
88'
R. Khadra← I. Ndiaye

Possession

65%Wigan

Shots

10Wigan

Pass accuracy

55%Wigan

Statistics

WiganSheffield
Overview
65%Possession35%
10Total Shots10
8Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots10
3On Target6
4Off Target1
3Blocked3
5Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
481Total Passes268
366Accurate Passes167
76%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides4

Championship: Wigan 1–2 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Wigan 2-1 in Championship on December 19, 2022.

Goals: J. Egan (8'), B. Sharp (56'), N. Broadhead (65').

Wigan controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.