Wigan 3–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

C. Wright 63'

J. Taylor 52'

J. Kerr 15'

4/14/2026

League One · Round 32The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan42%

×Draw27%

Rotherham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.15

Wigan

1.38

Rotherham

1.15

Wigan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

1.34

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Wigan

1.34

Rotherham

0.96

allows per match

Wigan

1.34

Rotherham

1.41

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less

Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

69%

Wigan or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

58%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

20%

Rotherham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

75%

Wigan 2+ goals

40%

Wigan 3+ goals

16%

Rotherham 1+ goals

68%

Rotherham 2+ goals

32%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

57%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rotherham attack 0.96 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wigan scores more

42%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

31%

Wigan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Carragher

Wigan · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

J. Kerr↳ J. Carragher

41'

Jamal Baptiste

52'

J. Taylor↳ M. Smith

62'

A. Martha← G. Biancheri

63'

C. Wright↳ R. Borges Rodrigues

64'

Fraser Murray

69'

M. Fox← J. Carragher

70'

R. Trevitt← D. Costelloe

72'

Brandon Cover

73'

E. Adegboyega← B. Cover

73'

J. Hugill← J. Baptiste

73'

J. Clarke← C. Lee

80'

J. Hungbo← R. Borges Rodrigues

80'

H. Bettoni← J. Taylor

85'

O. Moxon← J. Weir

88'

Will Aimson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganRotherham

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots6

11Corners1

18Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target0

4Off Target2

3Blocked4

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

355Total Passes316

252Accurate Passes205

71%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3