Wigan 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

J. Vaughan 73'

9/1/2018

Championship · Round 6DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan49%

×Draw27%

Rotherham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.92

Wigan

1.45

Rotherham

0.92

Wigan creates 58% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 90 away

1.16

creates per match

0.67

1.16

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Rotherham

0.67

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Rotherham

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

76%

Wigan or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

51%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

25%

Rotherham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

77%

Wigan 2+ goals

42%

Wigan 3+ goals

18%

Rotherham 1+ goals

60%

Rotherham 2+ goals

23%

Rotherham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

67%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wigan scores more

49%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

24%

Wigan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Walton

Wigan · G

8.1

Match Events

5'

Jon Taylor

19'

C. Robertson← S. Raggett

38'

Ryan Williams

45'

Richard Wood

57'

Sam Morsy

59'

K. Vassell← J. Taylor

60'

J. Vaughan← W. Grigg

60'

C. McManaman← N. Powell

73'

J. Vaughan

77'

J. Proctor← R. Wood

80'

Cedric Kipre

90+1'

J. Garner← J. Windass

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganRotherham

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots16

3Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots16

5On Target4

8Off Target6

3Blocked6

11Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

405Total Passes277

313Accurate Passes176

77%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1