Wigan 0–5 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Rochdale

A. Newby 90+2', 64' (pen)

S. Dooley 58'

M. Lund 18'

K. Baah 4'

12/15/2020

League One · Round 18DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Wigan45%

×Draw25%

Rochdale30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.21

Wigan

1.53

Rochdale

1.21

Wigan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 72 away

1.21

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Wigan

1.21

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Wigan

1.05

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

70%

Wigan or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

55%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

22%

Rochdale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

78%

Wigan 2+ goals

45%

Wigan 3+ goals

20%

Rochdale 1+ goals

70%

Rochdale 2+ goals

34%

Rochdale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

60%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.53

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wigan scores more

45%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

30%

Wigan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Lund

Rochdale · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

18'

37'

41'

45'

52'

55'

58'

60'

61'

61'

T. Aasgaard← W. Keane

64'

L. Robinson← T. Pearce

64'

A. NewbyPenalty

72'

M. Done← K. Baah

73'

T. Bola← H. Roberts

73'

F. Tavares← S. Humphrys

83'

E. Brierley← M. Lund

86'

O. Crankshaw← D. Gardner

90+2'

A. Newby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganRochdale

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots21

3Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots21

2On Target11

3Off Target5

3Blocked5

5Inside Box14

3Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

394Total Passes391

311Accurate Passes316

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2