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Wigan vs Reading — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reading
Reading
T. Ince 63'
9/17/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan42%
×Draw27%
Reading30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.32
Reading
1.07

Wigan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 112 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Reading
1.49

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
70%
Wigan or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
58%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
19%
Reading wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
73%
Wigan 2+ goals
38%
Wigan 3+ goals
15%
Reading 1+ goals
66%
Reading 2+ goals
29%
Reading 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
58%
Reading (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reading attack 0.99 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wigan scores more
42%
level
27%
Reading scores more
30%

Wigan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. InceReadingReading · F
7.5

Match Events

36'
Graeme Shinnie
60'
C. Wyke← J. Magennis
61'
N. Broadhead← T. Aasgaard
63'
T. Ince
67'
Abdul Baba Rahman
78'
Y. Meïté← Lucas João
78'
M. Loum← T. Fornah
83'
Charlie Wyke
83'
T. Naylor← W. Keane
83'
A. Scully← T. Darikwa
87'
Tom Naylor
87'
A. Mbengue← J. Hoilett
90+1'
Andy Yiadom
90+9'
A. Carroll← T. Ince

Possession

61%Wigan

Shots

10Wigan

Pass accuracy

53%Wigan

Statistics

WiganReading
Overview
61%Possession39%
10Total Shots7
1Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots7
0On Target2
8Off Target4
2Blocked1
6Inside Box3
4Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
548Total Passes352
450Accurate Passes260
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Championship: Wigan 0–1 Reading

Reading beat Wigan 1-0 in Championship on September 17, 2022.

Goals: T. Ince (63').

Wigan controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.