Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Reading vs Wigan — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wigan
Wigan
3/28/2026League OneLeague One · Round 40Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading43%
×Draw26%
Wigan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.46
Wigan
1.19

Reading creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 116 away

creates per match

Reading
1.58
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
69%
Reading or Wigan
74%
Draw or Wigan
57%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
21%
Wigan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
77%
Reading 2+ goals
43%
Reading 3+ goals
18%
Wigan 1+ goals
70%
Wigan 2+ goals
33%
Wigan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
58%
Wigan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wigan attack 1.32 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading scores more
43%
level
26%
Wigan scores more
31%

Reading at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reading 3 – 0 Wigan

Reading beat Wigan 3-0 in League One on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading.