Wigan 2–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Peterborough

J. Kerr 28'

C. Saydee 5'

8/16/2025

League One · Round 3The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Wigan43%

×Draw28%

Peterborough29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.99

Wigan

1.28

Peterborough

0.99

Wigan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

0.69

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Wigan

1.00

Peterborough

1.29

allows per match

Wigan

0.69

Peterborough

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

71%

Wigan or Peterborough

72%

Draw or Peterborough

57%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

19%

Peterborough wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

72%

Wigan 2+ goals

37%

Wigan 3+ goals

14%

Peterborough 1+ goals

63%

Peterborough 2+ goals

26%

Peterborough 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

60%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.00 + Peterborough defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Peterborough attack 1.29 + Wigan defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wigan scores more

43%

level

28%

Peterborough scores more

29%

Wigan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Murray

Wigan · M

8.7

Match Events

5'

C. Saydee↳ F. Murray

28'

J. Kerr

46'

J. Dornelly← H. Mills

56'

K. Lolos← D. O'Brien-Brady

56'

57'

58'

64'

71'

M. Asamoah← C. Saydee

72'

L. Robinson← J. Hungbo

81'

P. Mullin← D. Costelloe

90+2'

Cian Hayes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganPeterborough

Overview

30%Possession70%

10Total Shots15

3Corners10

12Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked8

9Inside Box6

1Outside Box9

Passing

30%Possession70%

221Total Passes520

144Accurate Passes447

65%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1