Wigan 0–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

J. Clarke-Harris 28'

10/20/2020

League One · Round 7DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan45%

×Draw24%

Peterborough30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Wigan

1.63

Peterborough

1.29

Wigan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.34

creates per match

1.24

1.34

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Wigan

1.34

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Wigan

1.34

Peterborough

1.92

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

70%

Wigan or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

55%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

23%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

80%

Wigan 2+ goals

48%

Wigan 3+ goals

22%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

60%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wigan scores more

45%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

30%

Wigan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Evans

Wigan · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

Dan Butler

28'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ D. Butler

36'

N. Mason← D. Butler

59'

C. Merrie← W. Keane

66'

Gavin Massey

81'

O. Crankshaw← J. Garner

82'

R. Broom← S. Dembélé

88'

T. Aasgaard← M. Palmer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganPeterborough

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots13

12Corners8

15Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target5

2Off Target5

5Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

428Total Passes341

332Accurate Passes247

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2