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Wigan vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
R. James 45' (pen)
T. Pukki 81'
4/14/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan35%
×Draw27%
Norwich38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.23
Norwich
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 138 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Norwich
1.43

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Norwich
1.30

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
62%
Wigan or Norwich
73%
Draw or Norwich
65%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
15%
Norwich wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
71%
Wigan 2+ goals
35%
Wigan 3+ goals
13%
Norwich 1+ goals
72%
Norwich 2+ goals
37%
Norwich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
48%
Norwich (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Norwich defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Norwich attack 1.43 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigan scores more
35%
level
27%
Norwich scores more
38%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. RobinsonWiganWigan · D
7.6

Match Events

32'
Gavin Massey
44'
Tom Trybull
45'
R. JamesPenalty
68'
Christoph Zimmermann
72'
N. Powell← K. Naismith
72'
J. Windass← G. Massey
76'
M. Leitner← J. Lewis
76'
J. Rhodes← T. Cantwell
76'
M. Vrančić← T. Trybull
81'
T. Pukki↳ K. McLean
82'
Reece James
89'
J. Olsson← D. Fox

Possession

35%Wigan

Shots

17Wigan

Pass accuracy

46%Wigan

Statistics

WiganNorwich
Overview
35%Possession65%
17Total Shots14
5Corners8
19Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots14
4On Target4
10Off Target5
3Blocked5
9Inside Box12
8Outside Box2
Passing
35%Possession65%
307Total Passes580
206Accurate Passes462
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Wigan 1 – 1 Norwich

Wigan and Norwich drew 1-1 in Championship on April 14, 2019.

Goals: R. James (45' pen), T. Pukki (81').

Norwich controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.