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Wigan vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
2/1/2025League OneLeague One · Round 30The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Wigan37%
×Draw28%
Lincoln35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.21
Lincoln
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 158 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.21
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Wigan
1.05
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
65%
Wigan or Lincoln
72%
Draw or Lincoln
63%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
16%
Lincoln wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
70%
Wigan 2+ goals
34%
Wigan 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
69%
Lincoln 2+ goals
32%
Lincoln 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
52%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wigan scores more
37%
level
28%
Lincoln scores more
35%

Wigan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wigan 1–1 Lincoln

Wigan and Lincoln drew 1-1 in League One on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at The Brick Community Stadium in Wigan.