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Wigan vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
C. Lang 33'
T. Hopper 73'
A. Scully 34'
2/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 30DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Wigan34%
×Draw26%
Lincoln40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.23
Lincoln
1.36

Lincoln creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.34
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Wigan
1.34
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
60%
Wigan or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
66%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
71%
Wigan 2+ goals
35%
Wigan 3+ goals
13%
Lincoln 1+ goals
74%
Lincoln 2+ goals
39%
Lincoln 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
46%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more
34%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
40%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. GrantLincolnLincoln · M
7.9

Match Events

33'
C. Lang↳ V. Solomon-Otabor
34'
A. Scully
41'
C. Bramall← A. Scully
46'
G. Massey← C. Merrie
49'
Thelo Aasgaard
54'
Jamie Proctor
70'
Scott Wootton
70'
Adam Jackson
72'
M. Sanders← A. Edun
73'
T. Hopper↳ J. Grant
82'
W. Keane← V. Solomon-Otabor
89'
Alex Palmer
90'
Gavin Massey
90'
Brennan Johnson
90'
R. Howarth← M. Rogers

Possession

49%Wigan

Shots

16Wigan

Pass accuracy

52%Wigan

Statistics

WiganLincoln
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots7
5Corners5
18Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots7
3On Target4
8Off Target3
5Blocked0
9Inside Box6
7Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
376Total Passes384
279Accurate Passes256
74%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls7
4Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Wigan vs Lincoln

Lincoln beat Wigan 2-1 in League One on February 20, 2021.

Goals: C. Lang (33'), A. Scully (34'), T. Hopper (73').

Lincoln controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.