Wigan 3–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Doncaster

F. Murray 50'

M. Smith 14'

D. Costelloe 11'

9/13/2025

League One · Round 8The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wigan54%

×Draw26%

Doncaster20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.78

Wigan

1.49

Doncaster

0.78

Wigan creates 91% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.23

creates per match

0.84

0.73

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Wigan

1.23

Doncaster

0.84

allows per match

Wigan

0.73

Doncaster

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

80%

Wigan or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

46%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

28%

Doncaster wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

77%

Wigan 2+ goals

44%

Wigan 3+ goals

19%

Doncaster 1+ goals

54%

Doncaster 2+ goals

18%

Doncaster 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

73%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.23 + Doncaster defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Doncaster attack 0.84 + Wigan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wigan scores more

54%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

20%

Wigan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Smith

Wigan · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

D. Costelloe

14'

M. Smith

31'

G. Middleton← H. Clifton

43'

Paul Mullin

46'

J. Senior← J. Maxwell

50'

F. Murray↳ C. Wright

59'

S. Grehan← M. Pearson

59'

T. Olusanya← J. Gibson

67'

C. Crew← T. Nixon

69'

Morgan Fox

73'

R. Borges Rodrigues← J. Hungbo

76'

Jack Senior

83'

M. Asamoah← P. Mullin

84'

B. Adeeko← C. Wright

84'

O. Cooper← M. Smith

90'

C. McManaman← F. Murray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganDoncaster

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots9

10Corners10

15Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

8On Target3

2Off Target3

3Blocked3

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

275Total Passes372

185Accurate Passes285

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0