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Wigan vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
10/3/2020League OneLeague One · Round 4DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Wigan44%
×Draw27%
Doncaster29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.41
Doncaster
1.09

Wigan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 108 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.21
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Wigan
1.05
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
71%
Wigan or Doncaster
73%
Draw or Doncaster
56%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
21%
Doncaster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
76%
Wigan 2+ goals
41%
Wigan 3+ goals
17%
Doncaster 1+ goals
66%
Doncaster 2+ goals
30%
Doncaster 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
60%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wigan scores more
44%
level
27%
Doncaster scores more
29%

Wigan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wigan vs Doncaster

Wigan beat Doncaster 1-0 in League One on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.