Wigan 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

J. Mukena 30' (OG)

8/24/2024

League One · Round 3The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Wigan51%

×Draw24%

Crawley Town25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.08

Wigan

1.66

Crawley Town

1.08

Wigan creates 54% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 31 away

1.21

creates per match

1.10

1.05

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Wigan

1.21

Crawley Town

1.10

allows per match

Wigan

1.05

Crawley Town

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

75%

Wigan or Crawley Town

76%

Draw or Crawley Town

49%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

27%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

81%

Wigan 2+ goals

49%

Wigan 3+ goals

23%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

66%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

29%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

67%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Crawley Town defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.66

Crawley Town attack 1.10 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wigan scores more

51%

level

24%

Crawley Town scores more

25%

Wigan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Aimson

Wigan · D

7.5

Match Events

3'

Josh Flint

30'

J. MukenaOwn goal

58'

K. Payne← M. Smith

70'

S. Smith← S. Thomas

70'

C. Bragg← M. Anderson

70'

Panutche Camará← A. Adeyemo

77'

C. Sze← J. Hugill

78'

C. McManaman← D. Rankine

78'

T. Sibbick← J. Carragher

81'

J. Roles← J. Williams

83'

Sam Tickle

88'

Ronan Darcy

89'

Callum McManaman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganCrawley

Overview

28%Possession72%

2Total Shots14

4Corners9

14Fouls7

Shots

2Total Shots14

1On Target3

1Off Target7

0Blocked4

2Inside Box6

0Outside Box8

Passing

28%Possession72%

247Total Passes659

157Accurate Passes558

64%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0