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Wigan vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Wigan
Wigan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cardiff
Cardiff
Y. Salech 90' (pen)
P. Ng 17'
9/27/2025League OneLeague One · Round 10The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wigan32%
×Draw28%
Cardiff40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.08
Cardiff
1.24

Cardiff creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.00
Cardiff
1.74

allows per match

Wigan
0.74
Cardiff
1.17

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
60%
Wigan or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
68%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
13%
Cardiff wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
66%
Wigan 2+ goals
29%
Wigan 3+ goals
10%
Cardiff 1+ goals
71%
Cardiff 2+ goals
35%
Cardiff 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
45%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.00 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Wigan defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more
32%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
40%

Cardiff at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
P. NgCardiffCardiff · D
8.2

Match Events

17'
P. Ng↳ R. Colwill
33'
Matthew Smith
55'
B. Adeeko← R. Trevitt
64'
C. Willock← I. Davies
64'
Y. Salech← C. Robinson
65'
O. Cooper← P. Mullin
65'
D. Costelloe← C. Wright
74'
D. Lawlor← C. Chambers
74'
D. Turnbull← J. Colwill
83'
R. Borges Rodrigues← W. Aimson
83'
C. McManaman← C. Saydee
88'
Chris Willock
90+5'
Morgan Fox
90'
Y. SalechPenalty

Possession

27%Wigan

Shots

6Wigan

Pass accuracy

43%Wigan

Statistics

WiganCardiff
Overview
27%Possession73%
6Total Shots15
7Corners5
9Fouls6
Shots
6Total Shots15
1On Target5
3Off Target5
2Blocked5
5Inside Box8
1Outside Box7
Passing
27%Possession73%
226Total Passes640
150Accurate Passes564
66%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Wigan vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Wigan 2-0 in League One on September 27, 2025.

Goals: P. Ng (17'), Y. Salech (90' pen).

Cardiff controlled possession (73%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Brick Community Stadium in Wigan.