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Wigan vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
Preview
11:30
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
5/8/2027League OneLeague One · Round 46The Brick Community Stadium
Big match
41%
Wigan
model favours
41%25%34%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan41%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.49
Burton Albion
1.32

Wigan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.34
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Wigan
1.34
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
66%
Wigan or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
77%
Wigan 2+ goals
44%
Wigan 3+ goals
19%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
55%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more
41%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
34%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wigan
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession43%
74%Pass accuracyBiggest gap64%
10.5Shots9.9
1.21xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WiganBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Wigan
4
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
2–01–01–11–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wigan
LLLDW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wigan vs Burton Albion — Match Preview

Wigan face Burton Albion on May 8, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wigan host Burton Albion at The Brick Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.