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Wigan vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
S. Hughes 43' (OG)
J. Brayford 54'
3/29/2024League OneLeague One · Round 41DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan41%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.49
Burton Albion
1.32

Wigan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.34
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Wigan
1.34
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
66%
Wigan or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
77%
Wigan 2+ goals
44%
Wigan 3+ goals
19%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
55%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more
41%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
34%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. BrayfordBurton AlbionBurton Albion · D
7.6

Match Events

43'
S. HughesOwn goal
53'
M. Godo← S. Humphrys
53'
S. Sessegnon← S. Clare
54'
J. Brayford↳ J. Hugill
67'
C. Sze← J. Smith
67'
J. Magennis← C. Kelman
68'
L. Chambers← T. Pearce
75'
Ciaran Gilligan
79'
Scott Smith
79'
A. Ola-Adebomi← M. Bennett
88'
A. Oshilaja← M. Helm
88'
A. Hackford← J. Hugill
90+4'
Thomas Hamer
90+1'
Joe Powell

Possession

70%Wigan

Shots

13Wigan

Pass accuracy

56%Wigan

Statistics

WiganBurton
Overview
70%Possession30%
13Total Shots15
6Corners6
15Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots15
5On Target4
4Off Target6
4Blocked5
9Inside Box11
4Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
617Total Passes256
532Accurate Passes175
86%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

League One: Wigan 1–1 Burton Albion

Wigan and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in League One on March 29, 2024.

Goals: S. Hughes (43' o.g.), J. Brayford (54').

Wigan controlled possession (70%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.