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Wigan vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
W. Keane 37'
J. Powell 16'
4/24/2021League OneLeague One · Round 44DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan41%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.49
Burton Albion
1.32

Wigan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.34
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Wigan
1.34
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
66%
Wigan or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
77%
Wigan 2+ goals
44%
Wigan 3+ goals
19%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
55%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more
41%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
34%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. EvansWiganWigan · M
8.3

Match Events

12'
Joe Powell
16'
J. Powell
37'
W. Keane↳ L. Evans
67'
D. Rowe← T. Taylor
67'
J. Earl← M. Bostwick
76'
K. Hemmings← M. Fondop-Talum
76'
J. Smith← J. Powell
83'
J. Proctor← V. Solomon-Otabor
90+4'
K. Joseph← J. Dodoo

Possession

59%Wigan

Shots

9Wigan

Pass accuracy

54%Wigan

Statistics

WiganBurton
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots10
7Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target5
3Off Target4
4Blocked1
6Inside Box2
3Outside Box8
Passing
59%Possession41%
323Total Passes226
216Accurate Passes128
67%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Wigan vs Burton Albion

Wigan and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in League One on April 24, 2021.

Goals: J. Powell (16'), W. Keane (37').

Wigan controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.