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Wigan vs Bolton — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
1/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 27The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Wigan41%
×Draw27%
Bolton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.30
Bolton
1.12

Wigan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 136 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.21
Bolton
1.19

allows per match

Wigan
1.05
Bolton
1.40

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
68%
Wigan or Bolton
73%
Draw or Bolton
59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
18%
Bolton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
73%
Wigan 2+ goals
37%
Wigan 3+ goals
14%
Bolton 1+ goals
67%
Bolton 2+ goals
31%
Bolton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
56%
Bolton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Bolton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bolton attack 1.19 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more
41%
level
27%
Bolton scores more
32%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wigan 0 – 1 Bolton

Bolton beat Wigan 1-0 in League One on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at The Brick Community Stadium in Wigan.