Wigan 2–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

M. Jacobs 90+4'

L. Evans 80'

6/27/2020

Championship · Round 39DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan40%

×Draw27%

Blackburn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Wigan

1.29

Blackburn

1.15

Wigan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 194 away

1.16

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

67%

Wigan or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

60%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

72%

Wigan 2+ goals

37%

Wigan 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

68%

Blackburn 2+ goals

32%

Blackburn 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

55%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more

40%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

33%

Wigan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Williams

Wigan · M

8.0

Match Events

57'

L. Evans← A. Pilkington

64'

A. Armstrong← L. Holtby

64'

D. Samuel← S. Gallagher

65'

B. Johnson← L. Travis

73'

M. Jacobs← K. Dowell

79'

D. Graham← B. Brereton

80'

L. Evans

83'

J. Davenport← J. Rothwell

90'

Cedric Kipre

90+2'

J. Garner← K. Moore

90+4'

M. Jacobs↳ J. Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBlackburn

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots12

3Corners6

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked4

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

340Total Passes421

261Accurate Passes345

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1