Wigan 3–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Blackburn

C. McManaman 86'

J. Vaughan 54' (pen)

G. Roberts 37'

D. Burn 83' (OG)

11/28/2018

Championship · Round 19DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan40%

×Draw27%

Blackburn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Wigan

1.29

Blackburn

1.15

Wigan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 194 away

1.16

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

67%

Wigan or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

60%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

72%

Wigan 2+ goals

37%

Wigan 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

68%

Blackburn 2+ goals

32%

Blackburn 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

55%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more

40%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

33%

Wigan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Naismith

Wigan · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

James Vaughan

9'

Lee Evans

15'

Danny Graham

22'

J. Windass← N. Powell

37'

G. Roberts↳ L. Evans

46'

D. Williams← D. Graham

54'

J. VaughanPenalty

62'

B. Brereton← R. Smallwood

73'

Sam Morsy

78'

C. McManaman← J. Vaughan

79'

C. Connolly← G. Roberts

80'

C. Conway← R. Nyambe

83'

D. BurnOwn goal

86'

C. McManaman↳ J. Windass

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBlackburn

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots6

5Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots6

9On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

15Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

301Total Passes401

193Accurate Passes295

64%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1