Wigan 0–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Wigan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

A. Hackford 90'

4/25/2026

League One · Round 45The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Wigan46%

×Draw24%

AFC Wimbledon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.24

Wigan

1.63

AFC Wimbledon

1.24

Wigan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

1.10

1.38

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Wigan

1.30

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

allows per match

Wigan

1.38

AFC Wimbledon

1.96

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Wigan-0.42scores less

AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

71%

Wigan or AFC Wimbledon

76%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

54%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

24%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

80%

Wigan 2+ goals

48%

Wigan 3+ goals

22%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

71%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

35%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

61%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.30 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.63

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Wigan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wigan scores more

46%

level

24%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

29%

Wigan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Kerr

Wigan · D

7.9

Match Events

35'

49'

52'

60'

65'

C. McManaman← H. Bettoni

66'

M. Fox← J. Carragher

66'

A. Sasu← L. Stewart

77'

A. Hackford← R. Nkeng

77'

Z. Nelson← M. Hippolyte

81'

Alistair Smith

86'

C. Saydee← R. Borges Rodrigues

86'

N. Asiimwe← J. Tilley

88'

Joe Taylor

90+7'

Will Aimson

90+5'

L. Robinson←

90'

A. Hackford↳ Z. Nelson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganAFC

Overview

70%Possession30%

16Total Shots4

1.07Expected Goals (xG)0.60

10Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots4

0On Target2

7Off Target1

9Blocked1

11Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

472Total Passes197

390Accurate Passes106

83%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3